Geospatial Analysis of Informal Settlement Development in Cape Town

Abstract

Informal settlements are a major influence in urban growth of developing countries such as South Africa. Informal settlements are associated to negative socio-economic factors such as unemployment and a lack of secure land tenure. This research focuses on developing a geospatial understanding the internal dynamics of informal settlement development within the City of Cape Town. To investigate how informal settlements establish and develop in at a local context. Imizamo Yethu, Langa, and Siqalo were monitored from 2011 – 2019 using image classification to determine the development, complexity, and compactness of informal dwellings. The overall accuracy of classified maps ranged between 88-96%. Then change detection analysis was used to identify the geospatial trend for each informal settlement and across all three. The combination of linear regression, and ordinary least squares analysis determined that a major spatial trend driving growth was densification which was correlated to the availability of open space. Further, densification was identified to occur along major formal external transport routes and informal internal transport networks. Individual informal settlements had unique internal geospatial development dynamics while having the same macroeconomic context and differing microeconomic context of Cape Town. Some explanatory variables were slopes, employment opportunities, and neighbouring income areas. However, the most statistically significant factor that influenced development across all the informal settlements were open space. This study could be used to assist policy and decision making in the formalisation process at these informal settlements.